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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.